Old Spinster Edition

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Old Spinster Edition

Post by reboundstudent on Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:13 pm

Apparently the only marriages "safe" from divorce are those that happen between ages 25 and 32.

http://jezebel.com/study-people-who-get-married-after-32-are-more-likely-1718311957

So, as a 30 year old that's no where close to marriage, this is all I can muster:

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Re: Old Spinster Edition

Post by Werel on Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:23 pm

Takeaway:

Jezebel wrote:But for real, how seriously are we supposed to take this? Studies keep claiming bullshit indicators are the keys to lasting marriages, including the price of the engagement ring (don’t spend between $2,000-4,000), amount of individual pre-marriage wealth, the size and price of the wedding and the presence of the honeymoon. So, I don’t know, just live your life. We’re all going to die regardless of our marital status.
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Re: Old Spinster Edition

Post by BasedBuzzed on Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:26 pm

>Jezebel
>no explanation why other than guesswork
>doesn't say how quick the curve rises
Oh well, it's GIFs so I'm not complaining.



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Re: Old Spinster Edition

Post by eselle28 on Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:33 pm

It's not that they're the only "safe" marriages. They're just the least likely to end in divorce. The data looks like this:



The variance isn't as big as articles about the study make it out to be.

The study appears to be balanced for things like sexual history and religious belief. I think some possible explanations are that some of these people are less suited to marriage, but also that some may be less inclined to think it a necessary part of life, having been single and having a good bit of experience with what the alternative to a poor marriage is.

I also think it's worth considering that this is the 5 year divorce rate, not the odds of ever divorcing. I wonder if desire to have children plays into that at all. A couple who marries at 27 and experiences severe problems after 2 years of marriage may feel like they have a few years to go to counseling and attempt to work things out, whatever the outcome of that is. I'm wondering if a couple who marry at 34 and who similarly have problems after 2 years of marriage feel like they have the same flexibility to work on their marriage while also having the option to find new partners to have children with. Maybe they're inclined to act a bit sooner?
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Re: Old Spinster Edition

Post by kath on Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:52 pm

And just like ... statistics aren't anybody's life. If the same two people got married at 19 or 30, would they be more or less likely to be together 5 years after the marriage? Probably depends on the people. Also it's not a question that makes any sense obviously since the same two people can't do both those things.

And ... these sorts of statistics are mildly interesting for looking at societal trends, and how, in broad strokes, we tend to make decisions ... but you're not going to be easily able to say how this overall trend will play out in any one person's life.

That said, I can certianly understand that you would find that article silly, frustrating, and triggering. Which is probably more what this is about.

Also that guy's theorizing as to why is like ... thanks dude, way to say something mean and dismissive that you then follow up with "but I don't really know". Nice dude.
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Re: Old Spinster Edition

Post by Perlandra on Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:52 pm

"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics." --Mark Twain
It doesn't sound like the difference over the age of 25 is statistically significant.

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Re: Old Spinster Edition

Post by eselle28 on Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:10 pm

I believe it was found to be statistically significant. That being said, I'm not sure I'd say that the difference between 14% and 19% is real world significant enough for people to change their behavior or be unduly concerned.
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Re: Old Spinster Edition

Post by reboot on Sat Jul 18, 2015 2:58 am

Bad science makes baby Jesus cry. Do not promote it. Get your research from better sources or read the source articles.

Shit, I mentioned Jesus ... I must be still high from surgery
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Re: Old Spinster Edition

Post by Perlandra on Sat Jul 18, 2015 8:16 pm

True, I should've said meaningful instead of statistically significant.

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Re: Old Spinster Edition

Post by celette482 on Sat Jul 18, 2015 8:24 pm

Meanwhile I assume that I can do whatever the hell I want in my marriage because I'm right in the sweet spot!!! YAS! SCIENCE!

That's statistics, right?
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Re: Old Spinster Edition

Post by Wondering on Sat Jul 18, 2015 8:57 pm

According to the chart eselle posted, the lowest risk for divorce in the first five years is married at ages 30-34, so I guess I'm set!

Oh, wait, I've already been married 6 years with no divorce. So...I'm set!

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Re: Old Spinster Edition

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